SOURCE: National Hurricane Center

Tropical Storm Erin is centered near 16.5N 41.9W at 13/0900 UTC
or 1220 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving W at 17 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Seas to 4 meters/12 feet
extend 75 nm in the NE quadrant, 30 nm in the NW quadrant, and 15
nm in the SE quadrant. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted within about 120 nm of the center. Erin's
environment is expected to gradually become more conducive for
strengthening over the next 48 hours, and the system will likely
become a hurricane Thu night.
Erin is moving quickly westward and this general motion is 
expected through Thursday, with a west- northwestward motion 
beginning Thursday night and continuing into the weekend, with
gradually slower forward speed. On the forecast track, Erin could
move close enough to the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin 
Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend to produce some impacts 
on those islands. However, the magnitude of those impacts is still
not known, and interests there should continue to monitor the 
progress of this storm.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Erin
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov 
for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 21W, south of 20N, 
moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed from 07N to 13N between 18W and 28W.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 74W, from the Windward
Passage southward to Colombia, moving westward at around 15 kt. 
No significant convection is noted near the wave.
A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 87W, south of 19N
extending into Honduras, moving westward at around 10 kt. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present across
the NW Caribbean W of 84W. This disturbance is forecast to move 
west- northwestward and cross the Yucatan Peninsula later today 
with no significant increase in organization. Some development of 
this system is possible after it emerges across the southwestern 
Gulf beginning on Thursday while the system moves to the west-
northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph. This wave has a low chance
of tropical development in the next 48 hours and also in the next
7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean Sea. Please, 
see the Tropical Waves section for information. 
The basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge to the north 
of the islands. Strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds are
noted offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, along with
rough seas. Fresh trades and moderate seas across most of the rest
of the basin. 
For the forecast, Tropical Storm Erin is near 16.5N 41.9W at 5 AM
EDT, and is moving west at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 
kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 
mb. Erin will move to 16.4N 44.1W this afternoon, 16.5N 47.1W Thu 
morning, and 17.0N 50.0W Thu afternoon. Erin will strengthen to a 
hurricane near 17.8N 52.9W Fri morning, then move to 18.6N 55.8W 
Fri afternoon, and 19.5N 58.7W Sat morning. Hurricane Erin will 
change little in intensity as it moves north of the Leeward 
Islands early Sun. Elsewhere, a westward- moving tropical wave 
over the northwest Caribbean along 87W will bring showers and 
thunderstorms to the Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent waters today 
as it moves inland. The thunderstorms may produce frequent 
lightning, locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and rough seas. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please, see the Special Features section above for information 
on Tropical Storm Erin in the central Atlantic. 
Aside from Erin and convection being caused by a tropical wave and
the Monsoon Trough, described in above sections, no significant
convection is impacting the basin this morning. A pair of surface
troughs extend from 31N52W to 25N65W and from 31N68W to 28N72W,
respectively, but are inducing little in the way of sensible
weather at this time, as the majority of the basin is being
dominated by subtropical ridging centered N of the area. Winds N
of 23N are mainly gentle with seas of 3 to 5 ft. To the south,
moderate to fresh trades prevail to the monsoon trough, with seas
of 5 to 7 ft. 
For the forecast, Tropical Storm Erin is near 16.5N 41.9W at 5 AM
EDT, and is moving west at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 
kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 
mb. Erin will move to 16.4N 44.1W this afternoon, 16.5N 47.1W Thu 
morning, and 17.0N 50.0W Thu afternoon. Erin will strengthen to a 
hurricane near 17.8N 52.9W Fri morning, then move to 18.6N 55.8W 
Fri afternoon, and 19.5N 58.7W Sat morning. Hurricane Erin will 
change little in intensity as it moves north of the Leeward 
Islands early Sun. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will result
in gentle to moderate winds and mainly slight seas through late 
week. 
$$
Konarik